• Home
• Archive
• Contact
• Site Map

News ProtidinBD

news.protidinbd.com

Three killer reasons Facebook's IPO could be worth $100 billion

On August 19, 2004, Google went public, selling $1.9 billion of stock, which placed the value of the company at $23 billion when trading started. (It's $187B currently.) Today, in 2012, we're talking about an imminent Facebook IPO, in which, it's predicted, Facebook will offer 10 percent of the company for $10 billion, placing the value of that enterprise at $100 billion. Is Facebook really worth this much? The economic answer is: if people buy the stock, then it is. But what will people be paying for? There are three big reasons that Facebook's IPO could be worth so much, and so much more than Google's initially was. Facebook really is that different. (This story is not a financial analysis--we'll have that when Facebook files its IPO paperwork.) In Facebook's unique combination, these three pillars make this company arguably more valuable that any other Internet company has ever been. 1. Reach At IPO time, Facebook will have over 800 million users. It should cross the billion mark in August. That's one-seventh of the world's entire population. Moreover, Facebook claims that these are "active" users, and that over half of them use Facebook "in any given day." That doesn't mean that the majority of Facebook's users are online every day, but it is a portrait of a large and engaged user base. Moreover, the average user is highly connected to other users and entities. The average friend count: 130. Google (not Google+) crossed the billion-user mark in 2011, but people use it very differently. They may rely on it, but they're not as engaged. Google is a way station, a site you transit getting from query to destination. Compare that to Facebook's Big Reason #2: 2. Dwell This is where Facebook really kills it. The average U.S. user spends seven hours and 45 minutes on Facebook a month (Just ask the Nielsen folks). Even YouTube doesn't come close, with under two hours a month. (Google overall is also under two hours a month.) That is a lot of attention. A lot of branding. A lot of games being played. A lot of information about user behavior, connections, and preferences being gathered. There is one downside to running a site where people go to in order to connect with each other, and not raw information, as on Google: they click less frequently on ads. But since they're on the site for so much longer than on a search engine, the raw traffic being fed through to advertisers could, theoretically, balance out. But the key point is this: Facebook works as a destination. More people go there than to almost any other site. And without question, they stay there. 3. Lock-in Given the performance of social networks that have come before Facebook, like Friendster and MySpace, one might well expect that at this point, eight years after launch as a Harvard dorm room project, that most users would be experiencing Facebook fatigue, and logging off in droves, as they have done on other networks that got huge. But they're not. In fact, Facebook is expanding its demographic reach. While growth among young users has slowed (but not gone negative), perhaps due to saturation, growth among adults over 50 is growing rapidly. (So says the Pew American Life Project.) Families are getting connected. Facebook is becoming part of the fabric of modern life. Disconnecting from this network is not as easy as just moving to a different social platform (like Google+), because if you move over, you're moving, for the most part, alone. And that's not what social networks are about. The more people (real connections) you are linked to on Facebook, the more difficult it is to leave. That's why Facebook tries so hard (and succeeds) at getting people to connect with other users. Each friend is one more barb on the fish hook. No other site has this tripod of strengths: massive reach, incredibly robust usage, and fish-hooked switching costs. Other popular sites have weakness in one or more of these areas that keep them out of Facebook's rare air, even if they're otherwise strong businesses. Look at Groupon's low switching costs, for example. Or Twitter's much shorter dwell times. Or LinkedIn's smaller network. This tripod is what Facebook is resting on, and what it should be able to build on. It's why the company is so valuable today. But what about tomorrow? It's not a sure thing the company will stay in this position forever, and it certainly won't if Zuckerberg's team lets its guard down after IPO. Threats to Facebook's dominance include: Advertiser support. People don't go to Facebook to see ads, and advertisers know it (compare to a search engine, where ads can be not just relevant, but desired). Ad performance is improving, which is extremely important to the company, since that is Facebook's main revenue stream The Zynga dance. We'll see when the Facebook IPO filing appears, but it's expected to be revealed that a large proportion of Facebook's revenues come from Zynga. Zynga's control-freak CEO, Mark Pincus, must want to free the company from Facebook's control, and likewise Facebook is far too reliant on this single game platform for so much revenue. The alliance may not be sustainable. Mobile support. Facebook has mobile apps, but they are not nearly as compelling as the Web service (on the iPhone and Android at least; the Windows Mobile app is different and better). There are better solutions for connecting with friends in specific circumstance on mobile devices (check-in apps, mobile reviews apps, and so on). No one app has either the general functionality or the reach of Facebook, but if any user trend could interrupt Facebook's growth, it has to be the move of the modern society to mobile online communications. The Google. Google will not give up on Google+, not after fumbling with Buzz, Wave, and Orkut, and not with Google knowing how valuable it is to own a database of people. Google can, and is, putting Google+ in front of nearly everyone. For that reason the company is able to claim90 million users. Engagement is not nearly at Facebook levels, and may never be, but Google has the resources, and the battle knowledge, to lay in a prolonged campaign against Facebook. Privacy flaps. Just kidding! No matter how many and how much journalists, politicians, and a tiny fraction of users complain, Facebook's privacy flubs will not amount to much, as long as the company keeps changing its policies so frequently that nobody can keep up with what Facebook is actually sending to other users and advertisers. At least in the U.S., that is. In other countries, especially EU countries with tougher privacy laws, Facebook could, possibly, get slowed down over privacy issues. But with Facebook's resources, I'd put that as having only a small likelihood of derailing Facebook's progress. Stay tuned to see how the market perceives Facebook's initial offering. The company isexpected to file its S-1 paperwork to go public this week. The actual offering won't be until a few months after that. Source: Cnet news

30.01.2012. 23:55

FBI's Most Wanted: A Social Media Monitoring Tool

An FBI listing on FedBizOpps.gov is putting out the call for developers to submit software capable of automatically monitoring social media channels for the purpose of detecting criminal activity. "Given the overwhelming volume of data generated on the Internet ... it is no surprise that the FBI is completely overwhelmed and unable to do any type of canvassing through basic human intervention," said Cornell's Tracy Mitrano. The FBI wants to keep its eye on social media users, according to a job post that invites software developers to submit applications capable of mining through sites such as Twitterand Facebook to identify possible threats. The post can be found on FedBizOpps.gov. The bureau has a detailed list of requirements for the app, which it says would only sift through "publicly available" material. The app would have a variety of targets, including cybercrime and terrorism. The FBI requests that the app be able to "adapt quickly to changing threats to maintain the strategic and tactical advantage" for those handling the app. 'Infinitely Flexible' The app also must be "infinitely flexible," a term that may refer to the app's ability to evolve with ease as possible threats change. "It could be they're asking that the source code be flexible, so that it's ready for upgrades and updates down the road when those become necessary," Scott Gagnon, account manager at Zco, told TechNewsWorld. In order to stay on top of those threats, the app must have a "dictionary of tweet lingo" that will allow it to monitor, as rapidly as possibly, key words or phrases the FBI thinks could signal a threat. The FBI envisions software that can snoop through social networking sites such as Facebook, Twitter and Google+. However, the post also asks that the app be capable of pulling information from news sites, listing Fox News, CNN and MSNBC as examples. Once a potential threat is spotted, the FBI wants the app to be able to use geo-location tracking technology, at least within a certain radius, to narrow the search to a particular region. Or, if the app is used to track a certain suspect, the FBI wants the ability to ascertain certain details from that person's daily life from status updates, location check-ins or photos to plan an operation. An app that might win the FBI's acceptance, then, would be able to track a threat as it is emerging and nail down exactly where it's coming from in order to ensure that a proper response team can get into place before any event can materialize. The listing also suggests that in the event of an attack or crisis, eyewitness accounts of the attacks, such as pictures uploaded to Facebook and Tweets describing the scene, could prove valuable in the following investigation. The FBI hasn't guaranteed that any submitted app will be used in any future investigation. The post stated that at this stage it's still collecting market research and reviewing development costs to see if it will be a part of its program going forward. The FBI Needs You The FBI the first federal organization to recognize the wealth of information stored in social networks. The Department of Defense and the CIA both have trackers on Internet memes and social networks, keeping an eye out for major international threats. The FBI likely hopes to generate an app that can do that on a more targeted, domestic basis. "Given the overwhelming volume of data generated on the Internet and other media technologies today, it is no surprise that the FBI is completely overwhelmed and unable to do any type of canvassing through basic human intervention. Technology is the only way that there could even be a hope of keeping up with all the content available," Tracy Mitrano, director of IT Policy at Cornell University, told TechNewsWorld. It's not unusual for a government body to request the help of outside app developers, Mitrano said. "It's common for companies or organizations to put out a request like this. It goes into great detail and outlines its very specific requirements and often includes information about the budget and other specifics. With the government, depending on the dollar amounts, they're required to get multiple bids, so a request like this isn't out of the ordinary," Mitrano added. Making Its Mission Known Though the FBI promises it will only be mining information that is already publicly available, privacy concerns are an increasing worry as users release more and more personal information into the digital sphere. "After 9/11 and the Patriot Act, protocols were reversed. That is to say that the internal protocols of the government, specifically the FBI, were open to law enforcement to look out at all media in order to examine expression for indications or patterns of activity that could lead to evidence of terrorism in particular and criminal activity in general," said Mitrano. Some privacy advocates regard that as an invasion, especially as the online social world continues to expand. The FBI is probably eager to make sure users know this is coming, Mitrano said. "This is a very smart political approach. It is making it transparent for the populace the understanding that if law enforcement is going to function effectively in American society, it must use the technological means that are foundational as to how all Internet companies operate today," said Mitrano. Source: TechNewsWorld

28.01.2012. 23:40

Facebook could file IPO next week, aims for $100B valuation.

Facebook is set to file its IPO as early as Wednesday, seeking a valuation between $75 billion and $100 billion, according to the Wall Street Journal, citing unnamed sources. The company is reportedly seeking to raise as much as $10 billion. If successful, that would make Facebook's offering the sixth largest U.S. IPO and six times larger than Google's initial offering, which is currently the record-holding tech IPO, according to Renaissance Capital. (See chart below; click for a larger version.) The Journal reported that Morgan Stanley is close to securing the leading underwriting role, with Goldman Sachs also playing a key role. Spokespeople for both banks declined to comment. Facebook also declined to comment. Another indication that an IPO filing looms comes from SecondMarket, the private company that runs a market for shares of private companies.Facebook is the most actively traded private stock on SecondMarket, and on Wednesday Facebook's law firm, Fenwick & West, reportedlyhalted trading in Facebook shares.. A spokeswoman for SecondMarket declined to comment. While 2011 saw a resurgence of tech IPOs--with companies like LinkedIn, Pandora, Groupon and Zynga all going public--Facebook is the 800 pound gorilla everyone has been waiting for. Facebook now claims more than 800 million members, with 500 million users logging into the site daily. Its founder and CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, made famous by the movie "The Social Network," is already one of the richest people on the planet. He started Facebook in his Harvard dorm room eight years ago. The battle among Wall Street banks to take Facebook public is fierce because of the fat underwriting fees that come with such a deal. If Morgan Stanley snags the lead role it would be a big blow for Goldman Sachs. In January 2011, Goldman orchestrated a $1.5 billion private offering of Facebook shares, leading market watchers to speculate that Goldman would naturally lead the public offering as well. One of the biggest winners in a successful IPO--besides Zuckerberg himself--would be theRussian entrepreneur Yuri Milner, who runs the investment group DST that together with its sister companies owns an estimated 10 percent of Facebook. Milner also owns stakes in Zynga, Twitter and Groupon. Zuckerberg, who is 27, has long said that he wanted to keep Facebook private, and it certainly says something about about his drive and motivation that in 2006 he turned down an offer from Yahoo to acquire Facebook for $1 billion. That said, Facebook has grown so fast that it's now running up against an SEC rule that would make it tricky for Facebook to shield its financials from public scrutiny. When a company has more than $10 million in assets and more than 500 shareholders, the SEC requires it to disclose detailed financial results every quarter. The deadline for Facebook to comply with that rule is coming up in April. That same issue is what led Google to go public in 2004, less than six years after it launched. Sean Parker, who was Facebook's first president and in November told me he owns about 5 percent of Facebook, today told CNBC said that Zuckerberg has done a good job holding off going public. "It's somewhat interesting and ironic that Zynga, which was built on Facebook's platform, went public before Facebook," said Parker. "It really speaks to Mark's desire to keep the company private as long as possible and build the company in that environment." Putting off the IPO until this year also could help amp up the demand, which Parker predicts will be huge. "To the extent that there is any bubble in technology at all, it is really a bubble around Facebook in the sense that there is a huge amount of pent-up demand among retail investors for access to Facebook equity," said Parker.

27.01.2012. 23:38